SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

[[{“value”:”SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook


Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Valid 141700Z – 151200Z

No changes are need to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See
discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 07/14/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/

…Synopsis…
Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire
weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued
warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm
activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts
of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours.
GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that
have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning
strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was
largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River
Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin.

A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of
the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level
moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak
convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values
have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies.
While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday’s convection
is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the
lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit
rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain
isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the
Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will
favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and
ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue
to pose a fire weather concern.

…Columbia Basin…
A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this
afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds
into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble
guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph
winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated
conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours
of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire
activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should
support the fire weather threat.

…Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho…
Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow
northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to
be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past
6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger
flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous
forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with
lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous
Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of
transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible.

…Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming…
Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon
from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along
the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds
with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic
pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show
considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration
of elevated conditions – possibly due to the potential for
convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted
in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region
over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be
monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates.

…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product…

Read more“}]] 

​[[{“value”:”SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Valid 141700Z – 151200Z

No changes are need to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See
discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 07/14/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/

…Synopsis…
Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire
weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued
warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm
activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts
of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours.
GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that
have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning
strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was
largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River
Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin.

A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of
the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level
moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak
convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values
have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies.
While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday’s convection
is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the
lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit
rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain
isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the
Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will
favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and
ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue
to pose a fire weather concern.

…Columbia Basin…
A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this
afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds
into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble
guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph
winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated
conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours
of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire
activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should
support the fire weather threat.

…Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho…
Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow
northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to
be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past
6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger
flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous
forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with
lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous
Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of
transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible.

…Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming…
Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon
from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along
the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds
with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic
pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show
considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration
of elevated conditions – possibly due to the potential for
convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted
in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region
over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be
monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates.

…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product…

Read more”}]] 

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